Some thoughts on… Sinking Ships

A number of metaphors are attached to sinking ships.  Supposedly “rats are the first to jump from a sinking ship” and “good captains always go down with sinking ships”.  Also, “deck chairs get re-arranged” and “the band plays on” while ships are sinking.  A week into the new year, and we witnessed a President urging a mob to disrupt Congress from voting on Capitol Hill.  The nation and the world were dumbstruck.

As the White House sees many of these metaphors play out, with less than 2 weeks left of the Administration what will be the legacy of this sinking ship?

Reflecting over the past four years, there were a few accomplishments:

1.     Establishing multi-lateral relations between Israel and the Arab countries of Dubai, Bahrain and Morocco.  The entrenched politics of the Middle East suddenly opened up, as trade, commerce and international relations started to flow between these countries. 

2.     Pushing back on China’s expansionary trade policies. Although risky, placing sanctions on Huawei due to national security reasons was a bold move. 

3.     Engaging the US populace into civic action.  The largest percentage of the US voting populace participated in the Nov 2020 elections since 1908. Likely an outcome that the President did not intend to happen, but a consequence of his actions nonetheless.

But these accomplishments were burdened by policy set-backs.

1.     Separating immigrant children from their parents at the border.  Over 600 of these children have still not been reunited with their parents – a humanitarian nightmare. 

2.     Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization.  Although not a lasting impact, since these international groups can be rejoined, it sent a strong signal that many are still in denial about the importance of Global Health and Environment maintenance.

3.     Encouraging foreign officials to intrude on domestic affairs. By openly calling for Russia, Ukraine and China to interfere, the President undermined the validity of the election process and broke the law.

4.     Handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.  With the highest total deaths and excess deaths per 100,000 people, the US leads all other OECD countries in fatalities from COVID-19.  Inconsistent pandemic response on issues like mask wearing, disrupted supplies of PPE to hospitals and minimal Federal contact tracing programs – all contributed.

The President’s story before he took office and during his tenure was simple to follow – he portrayed himself as an aggrieved underdog, persecuted by elites, who only wanted a chance to reap the riches to which he is entitled.  

This story echoed the voices of tens of millions of American and tapped into their personal stories of jobs, lives and opportunities lost to a global economy that is fostered by the meritocratic elite - a vanished American Dream.

A number of legislative policies could potentially have helped middle-class American workers:

-       Programs to retrain and teach skills to individuals whose positions have been off-shored 

-       Measures to strengthen workers unions which were handicapped since deregulation started in the 1980’s

-       Major infrastructure initiatives to rebuild roads and bridges that would employ skilled construction workers

The Administration did not push through these programs to help disaffected Americans.  The crowning legislative achievement was the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which in the end did not add jobs as expected and according to a Congressional Research Service Report put more money back in the hands of large companies and shareholders through stock buy-backs.

Amidst all these policy accomplishments and failures, one overwhelming success was the President’s finances.  During his time in office, he was able to help his family businesses which were virtually bankrupt before the Presidency, received more than $1.9B in businesses during the first 3 years of his term.

History in the end will judge the accomplishments of this ship’s voyage — whether it was an earnest odyssey to reclaim the American dream for millions of individuals, or a self-indulgent pleasure cruise lining the pockets of the individuals close to the White House.